For White House hopefuls like Pence, however, it's hard not to see this as a contingency plan if - and only if -Trump passes on running," he said. "We're about to start the 'invisible primary' - lots of potential candidates will be doing their own internal polling and be trying to gauge their viability before making any formal announcement about a presidential bid. For many MAGA voters, Pence's failure to support Trump in trying to stop the certification of the 2020 election results was enough to be disqualifying in itself. "It's hard to imagine Pence, or virtually any other GOP hopeful at this point, seriously contending with Trump's popularity among the conservative base. "If Trump does throw his hat in the ring for 2024, that decision will almost certainly freeze out many other would-be Republican contenders - Pence included," Gift said. Politics, told Newsweek that if Trump decides to run, he could lock other candidates out of the race. Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Centre on U.S. They'd try to avoid being the anti-Trump candidate, but he won't make it easy."īateman said that Trump has to announce his decision at some point, but if he doesn't he "might leave potential candidates stuck waiting and unable to take the next steps." Freezing Out Contenders ![]() "So I expect they're all prepping, and if Trump were to announce a bunch would decide they couldn't win and so back out while others would persuade themselves that they still could win and so would just accept that they'd have to be Trump's opponent. That would really really complicate their path," Bateman went on. "The complication is that everyone knows Trump's ego allows no contenders: they know that if they announce too early, seeming to foreclose his own candidacy, that he'll unleash his spittle at them. But they'd do it if they could convince themselves they can still win, and politicians are both coldly rational and deeply self-delusional." They don't want to, since that complicates their path. "Still, I expect most would be willing to go up against Trump, just like they would be willing to run if he endorsed someone else.
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